The international community faces a terrifying new reality as the United Nations nuclear watchdog chief, Rafael Grossi, has delivered a stark warning: Iran could be enriching uranium to levels sufficient for a nuclear weapon within a matter of months. The chilling assessment, made publicly on Saturday, dramatically raises the stakes in the already volatile standoff between Tehran and world powers, intensifying fears of an imminent proliferation crisis.
Grossi, the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), revealed his grave concerns during a press conference in Vienna, following a series of tense inspections and ongoing surveillance efforts by his agency. His remarks underscore a rapid acceleration in Iran’s nuclear program, which has continued to advance despite crippling international sanctions and recent U.S. military strikes on its nuclear sites.
“Based on our current data and projections, Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium to 90% purity – a level consistent with weapons-grade material – could be achieved within a few months, possibly even less,” Grossi stated, his tone reflecting the urgency of the situation. He emphasized that this timeline refers to the technical capability to enrich, not necessarily the actual production of a bomb, which involves further steps.
The IAEA’s assessment is based on observations of Iran’s continued deployment of advanced centrifuges and its growing stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity, a level that is a short technical step away from weapons-grade. While Iran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, its actions have increasingly eroded international trust, particularly since it began to roll back its commitments under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) following the U.S. withdrawal.
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The warning comes amidst a period of extreme regional volatility, marked by direct military exchanges between Iran and Israel, and a recent U.S. bombing campaign targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure. While the U.S. claimed its strikes aimed to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, a subsequent intelligence report suggested they failed to achieve a “strategic decapitation” of Iran’s capabilities, potentially leaving Tehran more determined.
“The situation is extremely precarious,” a senior Western diplomat commented on background. “Iran is pushing the envelope further than ever before. This new timeline from the IAEA puts immense pressure on all parties to find a diplomatic solution, but the window for that is closing rapidly.”
The IAEA chief also reiterated concerns about Iran’s limited cooperation with inspectors, including restrictions on access to certain sites and the disabling of some surveillance cameras. “Our visibility into all aspects of their program is not what it should be,” Grossi admitted, suggesting that the true picture could be even more advanced.
The revelation is set to dominate urgent diplomatic discussions. The P5+1 nations (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) involved in the original JCPOA face renewed pressure to revive negotiations, though prospects appear dim given the current geopolitical climate and President Trump’s “unconditional surrender” demands.
As the international community grapples with this alarming intelligence, the clock is ticking. The IAEA’s stark warning about Iran’s proximity to bomb-grade uranium capabilities represents a critical juncture, challenging global non-proliferation efforts and raising the specter of a nuclearized Middle East, with profound and unpredictable consequences for global security.