The world is experiencing an “unprecedented decline” in fertility rates, a demographic shift that is not primarily driven by individuals choosing to forgo parenthood, but rather by crushing social and economic barriers, according to a stark new report from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). The agency’s flagship “State of World Population” report, titled “The Real Fertility Crisis: The Pursuit of Reproductive Agency in a Changing World,” warns that millions are being denied the fundamental freedom to start the families they desire.
Released on June 10, the report makes clear that the global fertility slump is far from a simple matter of personal preference. Instead, it points to a complex web of factors that are making parenthood increasingly unaffordable, insecure, and challenging for young people worldwide.
“The world has begun an unprecedented decline in fertility rates,” stated Dr. Natalia Kanem, head of UNFPA. “Most people surveyed want two or more children. Fertility rates are falling in large part because many feel unable to create the families they want. And that is the real crisis.”
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A key finding from a UNFPA/YouGov survey, spanning 14 countries and representing a third of the global population, underscores this point:
- Financial Limitations: A staggering 39% of respondents cited financial constraints as the primary reason for having fewer children than they would like. This figure was particularly high in countries like South Korea (58%), known for its extremely low birth rates.
- Fear for the Future: Nearly one in five (19%) attributed their decision to have fewer children to fears about the future, including climate change, environmental degradation, wars, and pandemics.
- Job Insecurity: Approximately 21% pointed to job insecurity as a significant barrier.
- Unequal Domestic Labor: A notable 13% of women and 8% of men cited the unequal division of domestic labor as a factor preventing them from having their desired number of children.
The report highlights that the global total fertility rate has fallen from an average of five children per woman in 1963 to 2.2 children per woman in 2023. While the world’s population is still growing due to “population momentum” from larger historical cohorts, projections suggest a peak around the mid-2080s before a gradual decline.
This dramatic demographic shift is not confined to wealthy nations. India, now the world’s most populous nation, has seen its total fertility rate decline to 1.9 births per woman, falling below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain population size without migration. Countries like South Korea (0.7), Taiwan (1.1), and Italy (1.2) consistently report some of the lowest fertility rates globally.
The UNFPA strongly cautions against “simplistic and coercive responses” to falling birth rates, such as baby bonuses or fertility targets, which have often proven ineffective and risk violating human rights. Instead, the agency advocates for policies that expand individual choice by dismantling the identified barriers to parenthood.
Recommended actions include:
- Affordable Parenthood: Investing in affordable housing, decent work, paid parental leave, and accessible, comprehensive reproductive health services.
- Addressing Gender Inequality: Tackling stigma against involved fathers, workplace norms that push mothers out of the workforce, and restrictions on reproductive rights.
- Strategic Immigration: Recognizing immigration as a crucial strategy to address labor shortages and maintain economic productivity in aging societies.
The report makes it clear that the “real fertility crisis” is not about a lack of desire for children, but a lack of agency – the ability of individuals to make free and informed choices about when, whether, and with whom to have children. As the world navigates this unprecedented demographic transformation, the United Nations is urging governments to prioritize the well-being and reproductive autonomy of their citizens, rather than panicking over population numbers.