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Moody’s has warned the outlook for Germany’s AAA credit rating is negative, the first step towards a possible downgrade.

Credit ratings agency Moody’s said the country was at risk from the increased likelihood of a Greek exit from the euro and the need to provide more support to Spain.

Concerns are growing that Spain will have to seek a full bailout.

The Netherlands and Luxembourg – both AAA rated economies – were also put on negative watch.

A negative outlook posting from Moody’s, one of a handful of agencies that assess the creditworthiness of borrowers, reflects a higher risk that the actual rating will be cut at some point in the next two years.

France and Austria lost their AAA ratings earlier this year.

Moody’s said there was an increased chance that Greece could leave the eurozone, which “would set off a chain of financial sector shocks”.

It added that policymakers could only contain these shocks at a very high cost.

Representatives from the troika of international lenders are due to arrive in Greece later to assess its progress towards reducing its debts.

They must decide whether Greece is eligible to receive 31.5 billion Euros – the last tranche of a 130 billion euro ($158 billion) aid package agreed in March.

Greece is behind in its plans to cut spending and debt because its economy is shrinking faster than forecast.

Moody's has warned the outlook for Germany's AAA credit rating is negative, the first step towards a possible downgrade

Moody's has warned the outlook for Germany's AAA credit rating is negative, the first step towards a possible downgrade

Separately, the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, is to meet the Spanish Economy Minister, Luis de Guindos, in Berlin.

The meeting comes a day after Spain’s borrowing costs rose to their highest level since the creation of the euro. Yields on the country’s 10-year bonds remained above 7.5% on Tuesday.

Italy’s 10-year bond yield was also stuck at a high level, with a yield of 6.377%.

Moody’s warned that Germany and other highly-rated countries may have to increase levels of support for countries such as Spain and Italy, who have not asked for a Greek-style bailout but who are struggling with high debt levels.

It said in a statement: “Even if such an event [a Greek exit] is avoided, there is an increasing likelihood that greater collective support for other euro area sovereigns, most notably Spain and Italy, will be required.

“This burden will likely fall most heavily on more highly rated member states if the euro area is to be preserved in its current form.”

Jim O Neill, the chairman of Goldman Sachs asset management, said the European Central Bank needed to take radical action.

“If Italy gets into already the kind of pressure that we now see on Spain, there would be contagion into the French markets probably… so the policy makers have got to do something a little bit more decisive in terms of monetary interventions,” he said.

Lena Komileva, the chief economist at the investment research company, Gplus Economics, said she too was worried about problems escalating.

“My concern is that an outright sovereign bailout is such a politically unpopular measure that it might just happen too late, which means that Spain will continue to bleed contagion into the rest of the eurozone for the remaining of the year.

“Italy of course is an open target for contagion, but I’m increasingly concerned about the position of France.”

The downgrades come as worries over the eurozone crisis pushed the yields on Spanish and Italian debt to record euro-era highs, reflecting a weakening of faith in the pair’s financial position.

The German Finance Ministry said the country would remain strong, and said that Moody’s was focusing on short-term risks.

“By means of its solid economic and financial policy, Germany will retain its <<safe haven>> status and continue to play its role as the anchor in the euro zone responsibly,” the ministry said.

Rival agencies, including Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, have Germany on the AAA top rating with a stable outlook, implying they do not currently foresee a weakening of its financial position, although all agencies regularly review their rankings.

 

Representatives from the troika of international lenders arrive in Greece on Tuesday to assess its progress towards reducing its huge debts.

They must decide whether Greece is eligible to receive 31.5 billion Euros – the last tranche of a 130 billion Euro ($158 billion) aid package agreed in March.

Athens is behind in its plans to cut spending and debt because its economy is shrinking faster than forecast.

The Greek prime minister is expected to ask for more time to repay its loans.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Central Bank (ECB) and European Commission (EC) make up the troika.

The IMF said it was “supporting Greece in overcoming its economic difficulties” and would work with the country to get it “back on track”.

However, reports over the weekend suggested that the IMF would refuse calls for further aid.

Representatives from the troika of international lenders arrive in Greece on Tuesday to assess its progress towards reducing its huge debts

Representatives from the troika of international lenders arrive in Greece on Tuesday to assess its progress towards reducing its huge debts

Greece has promised to reduce its budget deficit to below 3% of annual national income as measured in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the end of 2014. At the end of last year, Greece’s overspend was equivalent to 9% of GDP in 2011.

Successive Greek governments have managed to trim 17bn euros from government spending. That has brought the country’s total debt down from more than 160% of GDP to 132% according to official figures released on Monday.

Under the terms of its international loan agreement with the troika, Greece has vowed to reduce its total debt to 120% of GDP by 2020.

However, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras would have had to have raised another 12 billion Euros through higher taxes and the sale of public assets such as the country’s loss-making railways to have met this bailout target.

Still worse, Greece’s economy is shrinking faster than most had forecast. The Bank of Greece expects GDP to shrink 5% this year in its deepest recession since the 1930s.

As a result, economists calculate that Greece may need a third rescue package worth up to 50 billion Euros.

The re-run of general elections and political instability as parties scrambled to form a governing coalition has delayed work by the troika and the government to agree a credible plan to restore the nation’s finances.

A European Commission spokesman said the troika would not be in a position to report its findings and release the final 31.5 billion euro installment of bailout money until September.

“The Commission is confident that the decision on the next disbursement will be taken in the near future, although it is unlikely to happen before September,” he said.

That leaves Greece in a difficult situation. A 3.8 billion euro debt repayment to the ECB falls due on 20 August. Without the troika money, the ECB may be forced to step in to provide temporary aid.

But further debt repayments are due in September so failure to secure the bailout money could push Greece to the brink of insolvency.

If Greece were to default on its outstanding loans that, in turn, could force it to exit the eurozone and return to the drachma.

*Troika

The term used to refer to the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund – the three organizations charged with monitoring Greece’s progress in carrying out austerity measures as a condition of bailout loans provided to it by the IMF and by other European governments. The bailout loans are being released in a number of tranches of cash, each of which must be approved by the troika’s inspectors.