ABU DHABI โ A high-stakes, two-day diplomatic marathon in the United Arab Emirates concluded on Saturday with a jarring contradiction: a U.S.-led declaration of “constructive” progress toward ending the war, even as the heaviest Russian bombardment in weeks plunged Ukraine into a subzero blackout.
The trilateral talksโbringing together top negotiators from Washington, Kyiv, and Moscowโdrew to a close without a definitive breakthrough. However, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff announced that the parties had agreed to resume negotiations in the Emirati capital as early as February 1. While the diplomatic pulse remains steady, the reality on the ground suggests a landscape far from peace.
“His missiles hit not only our people, but also the negotiation table,” wrote Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, accusing Vladimir Putin of ordering a “cynical” massive strike during the very hours that envoys were debating ceasefire lines.
The ‘Anchorage Formula’ and the Donbas Wall
The primary hurdle remains the “territorial issue,” specifically a 28-point proposal dubbed the Anchorage Formula. According to sources close to the Kremlin, Moscow insists on the following non-negotiables for a ceasefire:
- The Donbas Cession: Full Ukrainian withdrawal from all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
- NATO Renunciation: A formal, binding pledge that Kyiv will never seek membership in the Atlantic alliance.
- Frontline Freeze: A cessation of hostilities along current combat lines in the south and east.
While President Volodymyr Zelenskyy briefed his team on the “constructive” nature of the talks, he cautioned that no deal can exist while Russia attempts to “freeze Ukraine into submission.” The Ukrainian side has proposed a sequence where a ceasefire precedes any referendum on territoryโa point of friction that remains the “remaining 10 percent” of a deal that some observers say is nearly complete.

War Rages Beneath the Summit
As negotiators sipped coffee in the luxury suites of Abu Dhabi, the warโs brutal winter phase reached a new peak of intensity.
- Kyiv & Kharkiv Under Fire: A massive wave of Russian drone and missile strikes hit the capital and the northeast, killing at least one person and wounding dozens. Fires were reported on both sides of the Dnipro River.
- The Energy Crisis: An estimated 1.2 million Ukrainians were left without electricity, heat, or water in subzero temperatures after Russian strikes targeted “long-range drone sites and energy facilities.”
- Frontline Gains: The Russian Defense Ministry claimed its forces completed the takeover of the village of Starytsya in the Kharkiv region, underscoring their intent to secure “military facts” ahead of the next round of talks.
The Road to February 1
Despite the carnage, U.S. officials expressed a surprising degree of optimism, suggesting that these technical meetings are the necessary preamble to a direct “tri-summit” between President Donald Trump, Putin, and Zelenskyy.
| Key Player | Status | Public Stance |
| Steve Witkoff (USA) | Coordinating | “Dedicated to bringing peace to this war.” |
| Igor Kostyukov (Russia) | Military Intelligence Lead | Insists on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas. |
| Rustem Umerov (Ukraine) | Defense Minister | Focusing on “logic of the negotiation process.” |
| Mark Rutte (NATO) | Stakeholder | Reaffirming support for Ukraineโs sovereignty. |
A Fragile Hope
The duality of the weekendโdiplomatic smiles in the desert and shattered glass in Kyivโreflects a war entering its most dangerous “transactional” phase. For the millions of Ukrainians currently huddling in parking lots and shelters to avoid drone strikes, the “constructive” language of Abu Dhabi remains a world away.
“They’ll just say everything is fine, and then there will be more rockets,” said Anastasia, a Kyiv resident who spent Saturday night in an underground garage.
As the delegations return home to brief their leaders, the world watches the February 1st deadline. The question is no longer whether the parties can talk, but whether the “Anchorage Formula” can survive the heat of a battlefield that refuses to cool.
