For the betting markets, the 83rd Golden Globes were less a night of celebration and more a massive correction. As the trophies were handed out at the Beverly Hilton, oddsmakers across London and Las Vegas were busy slashing prices on what they now consider to be “near-certainties” for the 98th Academy Awards.
The most dramatic shifts occurred in the acting and directing markets, where three clear favorites have emerged with implied probabilities that suggest the race may be over before it truly begins.
Best Actor: The Chalamet Surge
Coming into the night, the Best Actor race was a dead heat between the legendary Leonardo DiCaprio and the ascending Timothée Chalamet. Following Chalamet’s win for the A24 table-tennis epic Marty Supreme, the market has moved decisively in his favor.
- Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme): Now the heavy 1/3 (or -300) favorite. At just 30 years old, bettors are banking on him becoming the second-youngest Best Actor winner in history.
- Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another): Once the early frontrunner, he has drifted to 11/2 (+550).
- Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent): The night’s biggest “value” mover. After his surprise Drama win, his odds were slashed from 16/1 to 7/1, making him the primary spoiler for the two Hollywood titans.
Best Actress: A ‘One-Woman Race’
If the odds are to be believed, you can already etch Jessie Buckley’s name into the Oscar gold. Her performance as Agnes Shakespeare in Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet has moved from “favored” to “prohibitive.”
- Jessie Buckley (Hamnet): Sits at a staggering 1/12 (-1200), representing a 92.3% implied probability of winning.
- Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You): Despite her own Globe win in the Comedy category, she remains a distant second at 8/1.
- Emma Stone (Bugonia): Now a massive longshot at 33/1, as the market pivots toward the emotional weight of Buckley’s drama.
Best Picture and Director: The Anderson Juggernaut
While Hamnet took the Globe for Best Drama, the betting markets are putting their money on Paul Thomas Anderson and his revolutionary caper One Battle After Another.
| Category | Favorite | Odds | Implied Probability |
| Best Picture | One Battle After Another | 1/7 (-700) | 87.5% |
| Best Director | Paul Thomas Anderson | 1/14 (-1400) | 93.3% |
| Best Picture (Alt) | Hamnet | 7/1 (+700) | 12.5% |
| Best Picture (Alt) | Sinners | 14/1 (+1400) | 6.7% |
The logic behind the “PTA Lock” is twofold: the film dominated the technical and screenplay categories, and there is a pervasive “industry narrative” that the Academy owes Anderson a win after 11 previous nominations without a victory.
The Value Picks: Where the Spoilers Live
For those looking to bet against the favorites, two categories offer intriguing “plus-money” opportunities.
Best Supporting Actor is currently the closest race on the board. Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) is the narrow favorite at 11/10, but he is being chased by a “split vote” scenario between One Battle After Another stars Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn.
Meanwhile, in Best Animated Feature, the market is behaving as if the race is closed. K-Pop Demon Hunters is currently priced at 1/12, making it a heavier favorite than almost any live-action film in any category.