In the face of an increasingly volatile global landscape, the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) and its partners are turning to a cutting-edge, high-tech weapon to future-proof national security: Artificial Intelligence wargames. No longer the realm of Hollywood fiction, these sophisticated simulations are becoming an essential, safe-to-fail laboratory for policymakers and military leaders to test strategies against a new era of complex threats.
From Boardroom to Battlefield: AI’s New Role
Traditional wargaming has long been a trusted tool for military and security strategists, providing structured environments to explore “what works and what doesn’t.” However, the character of modern conflict is changing rapidly, driven by the pace of technological innovation, the pervasiveness of information, and the rise of hybrid warfare.
This is where AI steps in. The UK’s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) and its academic and industry partners are pioneering a new generation of wargames. These are not simply about digitizing old battle plans; they are about addressing novel challenges, particularly those involving sub-threshold and hybrid threats, such as large-scale cyberattacks, information-centric influence campaigns, and economic coercion.
- Synthetic Opponents: Generative AI and Large Language Models (LLMs) are being used to create highly realistic, synthetic opponents and populations. These AI ‘agents’ can mimic the unpredictable, adaptive, and often non-kinetic behaviours of hostile state actors and civilian audiences. This creates a much richer and more realistic scenario for human players—military commanders and government officials—to interact with and respond to.
- Predictive Analytics: By applying AI to wargame data, analysts can move beyond simply recording outcomes. AI can help identify patterns in the massive volumes of data generated by complex simulations, leading to better insights into an opponent’s likely moves and supporting better, more rapid human decision-making.
A £1 Million Mandate for Innovation
The MOD has signaled its commitment with significant investments, including a £1 million research contract to a consortium of UK universities. This initiative focuses on applying AI to wargaming for a wide array of national security scenarios, from terrorism and cyberattacks to responses to hostile state actions and economic disruptions. The goal is clear: to build the “intellectual and technological capacity the UK needs to meet rapidly evolving threats.”
Furthermore, the MOD is investing millions more in synthetic wargaming platforms from private sector innovators to create a “single synthetic environment” that allows air, land, sea, space, and cyber forces to plug in and train together.
The Double-Edged Sword: Security and Risk
While the promise of AI in wargaming is immense, it comes with inherent risks that the UK’s security apparatus must mitigate. The work of the AI Security Institute (AISI) is particularly critical in this space, as it evaluates the risks AI poses to national security and public safety.
One of the central challenges being addressed is the “predictability problem.” Highly complex AI systems, such as deep learning models, can sometimes lead to correct or incorrect outcomes that are difficult to foresee or explain at the time of deployment. In a high-stakes national security scenario, this lack of predictability can muddy the chain of accountability and hinder risk management.
UK defence policy is therefore not just focused on using AI, but on ensuring it is trustworthy and governed correctly. This involves:
- Transparency and Oversight: Developing clear standards to assess the predictability of AI systems and ensuring that humans remain firmly “in the loop” for high-impact decisions.
- Robust Evaluation: Working with frontier AI developers to test and build robust safeguards against vulnerabilities unique to AI, such as data poisoning or prompt injection attacks.
The use of AI wargames is thus a crucial part of the UK’s wider Defence Artificial Intelligence Strategy—a deliberate push to not cede a vital advantage to adversaries, but to transform the entire defence ecosystem into an ‘AI ready’ organisation. In this new digital theatre of war, simulations are replacing speculation, ensuring the UK remains at the cutting edge of global security.