In a historic verdict that signals a legal and political reckoning for the far-right movement, Brazil’s Supreme Court has convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro of masterminding a coup plot to remain in power after his 2022 electoral defeat. The 3-1 vote by a five-justice panel marks the first time a former Brazilian president has been found guilty of attempting to subvert the nation’s democracy, a verdict that could lead to decades in prison.
The conviction is a culmination of a years-long investigation led by Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who has long been a target of Bolsonaro’s ire. In his five-hour opening statement, Moraes laid out a detailed timeline of a “criminal organization” led by the former president. Prosecutors argued that the plot, which began in 2021, involved a widespread campaign to delegitimize Brazil’s electronic voting system and included a plan to assassinate Supreme Court justices and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The evidence presented was overwhelming. It included video recordings of meetings where Bolsonaro discussed the plot with top military officials, a draft of a presidential decree to suspend the results of the 2022 election, and testimony from key allies. Justice Cármen Lúcia, who cast the deciding third vote, said she was convinced that Bolsonaro was the “instigator, the leader of an organization that orchestrated every possible move to maintain or seize power.”
The verdict comes after an intense and politically charged trial. One judge, Luiz Fux, voted to acquit Bolsonaro, arguing that the prosecution had failed to prove the former president’s guilt “beyond a reasonable doubt.” Bolsonaro has consistently denied any wrongdoing, claiming the trial is a “witch hunt” aimed at preventing him from running for office again. He did not attend the proceedings, which have been underway for more than a week.
The conviction sends a powerful message that no one is above the law. However, the legal battle is far from over. Bolsonaro, who is already barred from running for office until 2030 in a separate case, is expected to appeal the verdict to the full 11-member Supreme Court. His conviction also deepens the political divisions in a country still recovering from the January 8, 2023 riots, when his supporters ransacked government buildings to protest the election results.
The verdict may embolden Lula’s government, but it also increases the pressure on a deeply polarized nation. For supporters of Brazilian democracy, the verdict is a long-awaited victory. For Bolsonaro’s fervent base, it is yet another sign of a corrupt establishment persecuting their leader, ensuring that the political turmoil in Brazil is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.